Possible scenario
Managed Hormuz Corridor
27% Chance
Washington, Riyadh, and Gulf partners keep a functioning convoy and monitoring system in place through the Strait of Hormuz. The arrangement does not end the Iran war, but it lowers the probability of sudden tanker interruptions over the next several sessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.