Possible scenario
Orderly Dealer Consolidation
45% Chance
NatWest's exit proves to be a contained retreat from a low-return balance-sheet business rather than a sign of systemic Treasury-market stress. Larger US and European primary dealers absorb client flow and auction participation with limited pricing disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
Tickers
- NWG+0.5%
- +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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