Possible scenario
Liquidity Worries Spread
30% Chance
NatWest's withdrawal is interpreted as evidence that dealer balance sheets remain unattractive for Treasury intermediation. The reaction is not a crisis, but it adds to existing concerns over central clearing, capital rules and leveraged Treasury-basis trades.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.1%
Tickers
- -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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