Possible scenario
Talks Stay Stalled
45% Chance
Ukraine's denial holds and no concrete venue or agenda emerges for Putin-Zelenskyy talks. Trump continues to press for negotiations, but Kyiv refuses any format that looks like a political concession to Moscow.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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