Possible scenario
Limited Process Resumes
30% Chance
The denial does not derail diplomacy, and officials shift from a controversial Moscow visit to lower-risk preparatory talks. The likely outcome is a narrow process covering prisoners, humanitarian corridors, or a ceasefire framework rather than a comprehensive peace deal.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Energy -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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