Possible scenario
Threat Environment Persists
15% Chance
A more disruptive path is a short wave of threats, copycat rhetoric or security scares against MPs. This would not represent a national market crisis, but it would deepen domestic political uncertainty and disrupt public campaigning.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Business Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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