Possible scenario
Lone Actor Finding
30% Chance
Investigators are most likely to frame the attack as the work of Brendan Nugent acting alone or within a very small personal grievance context. That would limit systemic political-risk implications, even while keeping the criminal prosecution and MP-safety debate highly visible.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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