Possible scenario
Temporary Layoff Lull
28% Chance
The September decline proves to be partly seasonal and partly a pause before year-end budget decisions. Companies remain cautious on hiring, and later reports show layoffs reaccelerating from unusually low levels.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.5%
- Technology -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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