Possible scenario
Soft Landing Strengthens
42% Chance
The lowest September layoff count since 2022 becomes part of a broader stabilization in the labor market. Employers slow firing without reigniting aggressive hiring, supporting the soft-landing narrative and near-term risk appetite.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.9%
- Finance +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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