Possible scenario
Commercial Crew Validation
22% Chance
A clean Crew-12 return may be used by NASA and partner agencies to underline the maturity of Crew Dragon. The effect is likely reputational rather than market-moving, but it strengthens SpaceX's position versus other crew transport options.
Tickers
- SPCX+0.9%
- BA-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.