Possible scenario
Pardons Proceed Broadly
38% Chance
The most likely path is that the White House follows through with broad federal pardons for senior officials, campaign aides, and law-enforcement appointees tied to contested executive actions. The legal premise relies on the president's Article II pardon power and the Supreme Court's 2024 immunity ruling, while leaving state prosecutions and congressional inquiries unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Finance -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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