Possible scenario
Courts Test Limits
30% Chance
Federal courts become the main arena because pardons are difficult to challenge before prosecutors actually bring charges. Litigation likely centers on standing, whether unnamed future offenses can be pardoned, and whether Congress can obtain testimony from pardoned officials.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Finance -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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