Possible scenario
Congress And States Respond
22% Chance
Because presidential pardons apply only to federal criminal exposure, Congress and state prosecutors remain plausible channels for accountability. The impact depends heavily on the 2026 midterm outcome and whether state attorneys general can identify non-federal statutes that fit the conduct.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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