Possible scenario
Selloff Extends
42% Chance
The most likely path is a continued but orderly derating in semiconductor shares as investors reassess AI data-center spending, export controls, and high valuations. The move remains sector-led rather than a full macro shock, with the largest pressure on AI-exposed chipmakers and networking suppliers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.1%
Tickers
- MRVL-4.8%
- -4.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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