Possible scenario
Policy Backstop Stabilizes
35% Chance
Chinese authorities treat the AI selloff as a market-confidence problem rather than a reason to abandon the national AI buildout. State-linked funds, exchange guidance, and company buybacks help arrest the decline, while the $300 billion infrastructure plan remains intact but becomes more selective.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.5%
- Telecommunications +0.5%
Tickers
- NVDA+1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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