Possible scenario
Deleveraging Continues
30% Chance
The $480 billion loss forces margin unwinds, fund redemptions, and selling by retail-heavy AI thematic products. Policy support is either delayed or viewed as insufficient, keeping pressure on Chinese internet, cloud, and semiconductor shares.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.8%
- Finance -0.4%
- Telecommunications -0.4%
Tickers
- NVDA-3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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