Possible scenario
Russian Retaliatory Pressure
20% Chance
Russia uses the incident to accuse NATO members of enabling Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory. Moscow’s response is more likely to involve threats, cyber activity, GPS jamming, and strikes on Ukraine than a direct military attack on NATO.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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