Possible scenario
Renewed IRGC Campaign
25% Chance
Iran follows the Erbil-area strike with additional missile or drone attacks on Iranian Kurdish opposition positions in Iraqi Kurdistan. This would fit the recent pattern of September and October 2026 strikes after the U.S. withdrawal, increasing regional risk without necessarily producing a full crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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