Possible scenario
Baghdad-KRG Crackdown
15% Chance
Iraq and the KRG try to prevent further Iranian strikes by increasing pressure on Iranian Kurdish opposition groups inside Iraqi Kurdistan. This could involve relocation, disarmament demands, or tighter surveillance under an Iraqi-Iranian security understanding.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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