Possible scenario
Safety Bid Extends
35% Chance
Investors keep reducing exposure to expensive AI-linked equities and rotate into Treasuries. The move remains a market-positioning shock rather than a systemic crisis, but it keeps duration bid and pressure concentrated in technology and high-beta credit.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.0%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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