Possible scenario
Risk Rebound Emerges
30% Chance
The Treasury rally pauses as investors judge the AI selloff as a valuation reset rather than a collapse in demand. Bargain hunting in mega-cap technology and semiconductors helps risk assets recover, pushing yields modestly higher.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +2.0%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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