Possible scenario
Export controls dominate
20% Chance
The market shifts focus from Europe’s lack of ASML purchases to the larger issue of export controls on China. Dutch, US, and EU licensing decisions become the main driver of ASML expectations, outweighing the symbolic weakness of home-market revenue.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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