Possible scenario
European fabs stall
40% Chance
Europe’s zero contribution to ASML revenue becomes evidence that EU fab projects remain delayed, underfunded, or too small to absorb leading-edge lithography capacity. ASML continues to depend on Taiwan, South Korea, and the United States while Europe’s Chips Act targets slip further into the late 2020s.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- INTC-1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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