Possible scenario
EU policy response
25% Chance
Brussels treats ASML’s lack of home revenue as a political failure for European industrial policy. The European Commission, the Netherlands, Germany, and France move toward demand guarantees, faster state-aid approvals, and grants for pilot lines tied to ASML and imec.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- INTC+0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.