Possible scenario
Partial Security Deal
20% Chance
A compromise emerges in which the Lebanese Armed Forces deploy into selected towns and Israel withdraws from a large share of positions, but retains several hilltops or surveillance points. This gives Beirut a partial diplomatic win while allowing Israel to claim that Hezbollah's immediate threat has not been fully neutralized.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Energy -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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