Possible scenario
Contained Border Clashes
30% Chance
The dispute hardens into intermittent violence along the frontier, but both sides avoid a full return to the 2024-2025 intensity. Israel continues to frame the Litani buffer zone as necessary, while Hezbollah uses limited fire to challenge the occupation without inviting a major Israeli campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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