Possible scenario
Faster BOJ Tightening
40% Chance
The 31-year high in Japan's 2-year yield is treated as confirmation that markets are repricing a faster Bank of Japan hiking path after the move to 1.25%. Short-dated JGB yields remain under upward pressure as investors price a higher terminal rate and reduced central-bank bond buying.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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