Possible scenario
Ban Becomes Permanent
45% Chance
The Taliban maintains the nationwide suspension and frames it as enforcement of its media rules on foreign broadcasters. This is the most likely path given the prior erosion of independent Afghan media and the 2025 accusations of nationwide internet restrictions.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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