Possible scenario
NATO Defensive Escalation
25% Chance
The alliance responds with visible military measures to deter further attacks on NATO territory. The response remains framed as defensive, but Russian commanders face a higher risk of direct contact with NATO aircraft and naval units.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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