Possible scenario
Broader Hybrid Escalation
20% Chance
Russia or Russian-linked proxies expand the campaign from isolated ship attacks to a wider pressure campaign against NATO infrastructure and commercial traffic. The risk of miscalculation rises materially, and markets price a larger geopolitical risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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