Possible scenario
Military Pressure Escalates
20% Chance
Washington interprets the Fairford threat as part of a wider Iranian gray-zone campaign and shifts bombers and naval assets toward more operationally relevant positions. The move is still below open war, but markets price a higher probability of strikes or Gulf disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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