Possible scenario
Sanctions And Interdictions
15% Chance
The United States, European Union, and G7 respond to the Saudi accusation by tightening sanctions and maritime inspections against networks accused of supplying the Houthis. This remains coercive but below the threshold of open war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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