Possible scenario
Contained Diplomatic Standoff
45% Chance
Iran continues to deny operational control over Houthi attacks while Saudi Arabia keeps the accusation public. Regional intermediaries such as Oman and Iraq try to prevent the 2023 Saudi-Iran rapprochement from fully collapsing.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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