Possible scenario
Sustained Drone Barrage
45% Chance
Russia continues high-volume Shahed and newer-generation drone attacks against Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and regional power nodes. The campaign stays below the threshold of direct NATO involvement but increases civilian damage and pressure on Ukraine's air defenses.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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