Possible scenario
Air Defense Surge
25% Chance
The attack strengthens calls in Washington, Berlin, Warsaw, and Brussels to accelerate interceptor deliveries and fund additional short-range air defense. The policy response is incremental but tangible, with defense firms benefiting from procurement expectations.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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