Possible scenario
Moody’s Affirms Ratings
30% Chance
Moody’s could decide that the recent spread widening and Scope downgrade have already forced enough fiscal pressure on Paris. An affirmation would create a relief rally, though the size would depend on the outlook language and budget conditions attached.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.4%
- Utilities +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.