Possible scenario
Budget Truce Advances
15% Chance
The bond-market selloff may force enough lawmakers to reopen fiscal negotiations and avoid a deeper sovereign-risk spiral. This path requires concrete concessions in the National Assembly and a clearer deficit-reduction timetable before investors regain confidence.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +2.1%
- Utilities +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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