Scrub Or Major Failure
0.0%
The mission is either scrubbed before liftoff or fails before completing the satellite deployment. This is less likely than partial success because SpaceX has already demonstrated orbital deployment, but Starship remains an active test program with high technical risk.
What it moves
- Industrials−0.5%
- Telecommunications−0.3%
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.