Possible scenario
Congress Restores Funding
18% Chance
Bipartisan lawmakers move to protect PEPFAR through an appropriations rider or supplemental funding measure. This is less likely than an executive waiver because it requires a legislative vehicle, but the program’s long-standing Republican and Democratic support makes it realistic.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Business Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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