Possible scenario
Mediation Gains Traction
23% Chance
The Saudi casualty announcement increases pressure on all sides to avoid further strikes on Riyadh, while Oman, Russia and China use the moment to revive ceasefire terms. The Houthis may still demand concessions, but a limited pause becomes more plausible if Riyadh signals restraint.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Consumer Services +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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