Possible scenario
Dispute Is Contained
45% Chance
Tehran treats the reported contact as an internal authorization issue rather than a policy reversal. Abbas Araghchi remains foreign minister, and the Pezeshkian government preserves enough space to keep indirect nuclear diplomacy alive through Oman.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Tickers
- DAL+0.5%
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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