Possible scenario
Energy Targets Escalation
25% Chance
The conflict escalates from airports and Sanaa airstrikes toward Saudi energy or transport infrastructure. This remains less likely than a contained exchange, but recent Houthi success against Riyadh airports raises the perceived risk of attacks on higher-value targets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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