Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
18% Chance
Regional mediators move quickly to prevent airport attacks and airstrikes from derailing prior Yemen de-escalation channels. Riyadh may accept a limited pause if the Houthis stop attacks into Saudi territory, while the Houthis can claim they forced attention to Yemen.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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