Contained Retaliatory Cycle

Saudi Arabia continues airstrikes on Houthi-held areas around Sanaa, but both sides avoid a major expansion beyond the current tit-for-tat pattern. This is the most likely path because Riyadh has an incentive to respond after deaths at its airports while still limiting risks to oil infrastructure and foreign air travel.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.