Possible scenario
Physical Incident Escalates
20% Chance
A Philippine mission encounters stronger Chinese blocking tactics, causing a collision, hull damage, or injuries. Manila publicizes the incident, summons China’s ambassador, and requests stronger allied support, creating the clearest path to a market-relevant escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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