Possible scenario
Managed Maritime Standoff
45% Chance
Manila continues to reject Chinese navigational demands around Second Thomas Shoal while avoiding a deliberate military escalation. Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels keep shadowing, radio-challenging, and occasionally obstructing Philippine boats, but both sides stop short of armed force.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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