Possible scenario
Allied Deterrence Rises
25% Chance
Washington and treaty partners increase diplomatic and operational support for Manila, emphasizing freedom of navigation and the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. The added deterrence lowers the chance of a unilateral Chinese blockade but raises the visibility of great-power competition.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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