Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliation Expands
20% Chance
Riyadh responds to repeated missile attacks by widening strikes on Houthi launch infrastructure, command sites, and supply routes in Yemen. This is a meaningful escalation, but still likely calibrated to avoid direct confrontation with Iran.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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