Possible scenario
Negotiated Pause Returns
25% Chance
Oman, the United Nations, and possibly U.S. envoys push both sides back toward a limited ceasefire framework. Saudi Arabia may accept a temporary pause if the Houthis halt attacks on Riyadh and energy infrastructure, even if territorial disputes remain unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Services +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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