Possible scenario
Contained Missile Exchange
45% Chance
The most likely near-term path is continued Houthi missile and drone launches against Riyadh and Saudi infrastructure, with Saudi air defenses intercepting most attacks. Riyadh keeps retaliation limited to defensive operations and selective strikes, avoiding a broader regional confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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